Is Bitcoin's October Slump a Historic Buying Opportunity? The crypto market is abuzz, with Bitcoin (BTCUSD) currently trading below $105,000, sparking memories of past market crashes. But is this a sign of impending doom, or a chance to buy the dip? Let's dive in.
Echoes of the Past: October's Downturn and Accumulation
Some seasoned analysts believe October's market downturn could be setting the stage for a significant rebound, similar to what we saw in late 2020 when Bitcoin was trading around $12,000 before a massive surge. One investor shared, "It felt dead... and then the mother of all outperformances took place."
On-chain data supports this sentiment. Glassnode reports that smaller Bitcoin holders (holding between 1 and 1,000 BTC) have been actively accumulating since early October, even as prices dipped from $118,000 to $108,000. This indicates strong conviction from retail and mid-sized investors. Meanwhile, larger holders seem to have paused their selling. Stockmoney Lizards notes that Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score is near 2.15, a level historically associated with accumulation. They suggest that there's plenty of room for growth.
Analyst Axel Adler identifies the $106,000–$107,000 range as a critical support level. Losing this could trigger a retest of $100,000. As long as this base holds, the market structure remains bullish, according to Adler.
Secular Shifts and Cyclical Exhaustion
But here's where it gets controversial... Macro voices like CredibleCrypto caution against ignoring the bigger picture. They point out that Bitcoin's entire 16-year history has coincided with equities' own 16-year bull cycle, both potentially nearing exhaustion. They predict "devastation across the board."
This contrasts sharply with analyst Miles Deutscher's view, who believes Bitcoin's digital gold narrative will eventually decouple it from risk assets.
AI Forecasts, Cycle Theories, and Market Psychology
Quant-based forecaster Timothy Peterson's AI model still gives Bitcoin a 75% chance of finishing October above $114,000. Cycle analysts also share optimism. Trader Cyclop calculates that Bitcoin's prior bull markets each lasted roughly 1,064 days, placing the current cycle within 90 days of a potential peak in November or December 2025.
Meanwhile, JDK Analysis dismisses bearish predictions as premature, reminding followers that every prior bull cycle has lengthened over time.
Technicals Tighten With Bulls on Defense
Technically, Bitcoin is clinging to its 200-day EMA, which investor Lark Davis calls the bull-bear line. A failure to hold could lead to a test of the $100,000 support level, but a bounce from here might validate the accumulation thesis.
With on-chain data showing strength and traders split between despair and determination, Bitcoin's October lull is a pivotal moment. The conviction of the market's smallest buyers could determine whether this is a pause before a breakdown or the calm before another parabolic run.
What do you think? Are you accumulating Bitcoin, or are you more cautious? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
